EDGEAI

MLBhitter vs arsenal

+13 pts

Drake Baldwin is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 34% of the time against the kind of pitches Aaron Nola throws, compared with 22% against everyone else — 13 points worse. The reason is the knuckle curve: Aaron Nola throws it 33% of the time, and Drake Baldwin strikes out 64% of the time against it across 11 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

Published Sunday, September 6, 2026

Drake Baldwin is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 34% of the time against the kind of pitches Aaron Nola throws, compared with 22% against everyone else — 13 points worse. The reason is the knuckle curve: Aaron Nola throws it 33% of the time, and Drake Baldwin strikes out 64% of the time against it across 11 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR

Drake Baldwin Over 0.5 strikeouts

THE NUMBERS

player id
686948
player name
Drake Baldwin
team
Atlanta Braves
matchup
Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies
pitcher name
Aaron Nola
direction
vulnerable
headline
+13 pts
weighted krate
0.34
own baseline
0.215
k delta
0.125
weighted avg
0.23
mix covered
0.916
detail
Drake Baldwin is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 34% of the time against the kind of pitches Aaron Nola throws, compared with 22% against everyone else — 13 points worse. The reason is the knuckle curve: Aaron Nola throws it 33% of the time, and Drake Baldwin strikes out 64% of the time against it across 11 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.