EDGEAI

MLBhitter vs arsenal

+13 pts

Drake Baldwin is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 35% of the time against the kind of pitches Aaron Nola throws, compared with 22% against everyone else — 13 points worse. The reason is the knuckle curve: Aaron Nola throws it 33% of the time, and Drake Baldwin strikes out 67% of the time against it across 12 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

Published Friday, September 11, 2026

Drake Baldwin is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 35% of the time against the kind of pitches Aaron Nola throws, compared with 22% against everyone else — 13 points worse. The reason is the knuckle curve: Aaron Nola throws it 33% of the time, and Drake Baldwin strikes out 67% of the time against it across 12 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR

Drake Baldwin Over 0.5 strikeouts

THE NUMBERS

player id
686948
player name
Drake Baldwin
team
Atlanta Braves
matchup
Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves
pitcher name
Aaron Nola
direction
vulnerable
headline
+13 pts
weighted krate
0.349
own baseline
0.216
k delta
0.133
weighted avg
0.225
mix covered
0.916
detail
Drake Baldwin is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 35% of the time against the kind of pitches Aaron Nola throws, compared with 22% against everyone else — 13 points worse. The reason is the knuckle curve: Aaron Nola throws it 33% of the time, and Drake Baldwin strikes out 67% of the time against it across 12 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.