EDGEAI

MLBhitter vs arsenal

+12 pts

Joey Ortiz is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 31% of the time against the kind of pitches Kevin Gausman throws, compared with 19% against everyone else — 12 points worse. The reason is the splitter: Kevin Gausman throws it 38% of the time, and Joey Ortiz strikes out 40% of the time against it across 10 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

Published Thursday, September 3, 2026

Joey Ortiz is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 31% of the time against the kind of pitches Kevin Gausman throws, compared with 19% against everyone else — 12 points worse. The reason is the splitter: Kevin Gausman throws it 38% of the time, and Joey Ortiz strikes out 40% of the time against it across 10 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR

Joey Ortiz Over 0.5 strikeouts

THE NUMBERS

player id
687401
player name
Joey Ortiz
team
Milwaukee Brewers
matchup
Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs
pitcher name
Kevin Gausman
direction
vulnerable
headline
+12 pts
weighted krate
0.311
own baseline
0.188
k delta
0.123
weighted avg
0.137
mix covered
0.896
detail
Joey Ortiz is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 31% of the time against the kind of pitches Kevin Gausman throws, compared with 19% against everyone else — 12 points worse. The reason is the splitter: Kevin Gausman throws it 38% of the time, and Joey Ortiz strikes out 40% of the time against it across 10 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.