EDGEAI

MLBhitter vs arsenal

+7 pts

Troy Johnston is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 24% of the time against the kind of pitches Cade Cavalli throws, compared with 17% against everyone else — 7 points worse. The reason is the knuckle curve: Cade Cavalli throws it 27% of the time, and Troy Johnston strikes out 36% of the time against it across 11 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

Published Monday, August 24, 2026

Troy Johnston is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 24% of the time against the kind of pitches Cade Cavalli throws, compared with 17% against everyone else — 7 points worse. The reason is the knuckle curve: Cade Cavalli throws it 27% of the time, and Troy Johnston strikes out 36% of the time against it across 11 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR

Troy Johnston Over 0.5 strikeouts

THE NUMBERS

player id
687859
player name
Troy Johnston
team
Colorado Rockies
matchup
Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals
pitcher name
Cade Cavalli
direction
vulnerable
headline
+7 pts
weighted krate
0.242
own baseline
0.171
k delta
0.071
weighted avg
0.246
mix covered
0.866
detail
Troy Johnston is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 24% of the time against the kind of pitches Cade Cavalli throws, compared with 17% against everyone else — 7 points worse. The reason is the knuckle curve: Cade Cavalli throws it 27% of the time, and Troy Johnston strikes out 36% of the time against it across 11 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.