EDGEAI

MLBhitter vs arsenal

-9 pts

Jordan Lawlar is a safer bet to put the ball in play tonight than he usually is, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 18% of the time against the kind of pitches Aaron Nola throws, compared with 27% against everyone else — 9 points better. The reason is the changeup: Aaron Nola throws it 16% of the time, and Jordan Lawlar strikes out 0% of the time against it across 11 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 59% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

Published Monday, August 31, 2026

Jordan Lawlar is a safer bet to put the ball in play tonight than he usually is, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 18% of the time against the kind of pitches Aaron Nola throws, compared with 27% against everyone else — 9 points better. The reason is the changeup: Aaron Nola throws it 16% of the time, and Jordan Lawlar strikes out 0% of the time against it across 11 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 59% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

THE NUMBERS

player id
691783
player name
Jordan Lawlar
team
Arizona Diamondbacks
matchup
Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
pitcher name
Aaron Nola
direction
comfortable
headline
-9 pts
weighted krate
0.184
own baseline
0.27
k delta
-0.086
weighted avg
0.341
mix covered
0.585
detail
Jordan Lawlar is a safer bet to put the ball in play tonight than he usually is, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 18% of the time against the kind of pitches Aaron Nola throws, compared with 27% against everyone else — 9 points better. The reason is the changeup: Aaron Nola throws it 16% of the time, and Jordan Lawlar strikes out 0% of the time against it across 11 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 59% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.