EDGEAI
MLBhitter vs arsenal
+6 pts
STRIKES OUT MORE
Published Thursday, September 24, 2026
Jordan Lawlar is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 36% of the time against the kind of pitches Tanner Gordon throws, compared with 30% against everyone else — 6 points worse. The reason is the slider: Tanner Gordon throws it 21% of the time, and Jordan Lawlar strikes out 69% of the time against it across 13 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.
THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR
Jordan Lawlar Over 0.5 strikeouts
THE NUMBERS
player id
691783
player name
Jordan Lawlar
team
Arizona Diamondbacks
matchup
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies
pitcher name
Tanner Gordon
direction
vulnerable
headline
+6 pts
weighted krate
0.357
own baseline
0.297
k delta
0.06
weighted avg
0.3
mix covered
0.861
detail
Jordan Lawlar is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 36% of the time against the kind of pitches Tanner Gordon throws, compared with 30% against everyone else — 6 points worse. The reason is the slider: Tanner Gordon throws it 21% of the time, and Jordan Lawlar strikes out 69% of the time against it across 13 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.
This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.