EDGEAI

MLBhitter vs arsenal

+6 pts

Nick Gonzales is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 23% of the time against the kind of pitches Shota Imanaga throws, compared with 16% against everyone else — 6 points worse. The reason is the splitter: Shota Imanaga throws it 33% of the time, and Nick Gonzales strikes out 36% of the time against it across 14 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

Published Friday, September 11, 2026

Nick Gonzales is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 23% of the time against the kind of pitches Shota Imanaga throws, compared with 16% against everyone else — 6 points worse. The reason is the splitter: Shota Imanaga throws it 33% of the time, and Nick Gonzales strikes out 36% of the time against it across 14 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR

Nick Gonzales Over 0.5 strikeouts

THE NUMBERS

player id
693304
player name
Nick Gonzales
team
Pittsburgh Pirates
matchup
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs
pitcher name
Shota Imanaga
direction
vulnerable
headline
+6 pts
weighted krate
0.225
own baseline
0.161
k delta
0.064
weighted avg
0.255
mix covered
0.892
detail
Nick Gonzales is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 23% of the time against the kind of pitches Shota Imanaga throws, compared with 16% against everyone else — 6 points worse. The reason is the splitter: Shota Imanaga throws it 33% of the time, and Nick Gonzales strikes out 36% of the time against it across 14 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.