EDGEAI

MLBhitter vs arsenal

+20 pts

Joshua Báez is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 57% of the time against the kind of pitches Trevor Rogers throws, compared with 37% against everyone else — 20 points worse. The reason is the four-seam fb: Trevor Rogers throws it 46% of the time, and Joshua Báez strikes out 60% of the time against it across 10 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 68% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

Published Thursday, August 27, 2026

Joshua Báez is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 57% of the time against the kind of pitches Trevor Rogers throws, compared with 37% against everyone else — 20 points worse. The reason is the four-seam fb: Trevor Rogers throws it 46% of the time, and Joshua Báez strikes out 60% of the time against it across 10 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 68% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR

Joshua Báez Over 0.5 strikeouts

THE NUMBERS

player id
695491
player name
Joshua Báez
team
St. Louis Cardinals
matchup
Baltimore Orioles @ St. Louis Cardinals
pitcher name
Trevor Rogers
direction
vulnerable
headline
+20 pts
weighted krate
0.568
own baseline
0.37
k delta
0.198
weighted avg
0.176
mix covered
0.676
detail
Joshua Báez is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 57% of the time against the kind of pitches Trevor Rogers throws, compared with 37% against everyone else — 20 points worse. The reason is the four-seam fb: Trevor Rogers throws it 46% of the time, and Joshua Báez strikes out 60% of the time against it across 10 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 68% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.