EDGEAI

MLBhitter vs arsenal

+21 pts

Joshua Báez is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 58% of the time against the kind of pitches Jared Jones throws, compared with 37% against everyone else — 21 points worse. The reason is the four-seam fb: Jared Jones throws it 47% of the time, and Joshua Báez strikes out 60% of the time against it across 10 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 60% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

Published Friday, August 28, 2026

Joshua Báez is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 58% of the time against the kind of pitches Jared Jones throws, compared with 37% against everyone else — 21 points worse. The reason is the four-seam fb: Jared Jones throws it 47% of the time, and Joshua Báez strikes out 60% of the time against it across 10 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 60% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR

Joshua Báez Over 0.5 strikeouts

THE NUMBERS

player id
695491
player name
Joshua Báez
team
St. Louis Cardinals
matchup
Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals
pitcher name
Jared Jones
direction
vulnerable
headline
+21 pts
weighted krate
0.579
own baseline
0.37
k delta
0.209
weighted avg
0.184
mix covered
0.595
detail
Joshua Báez is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 58% of the time against the kind of pitches Jared Jones throws, compared with 37% against everyone else — 21 points worse. The reason is the four-seam fb: Jared Jones throws it 47% of the time, and Joshua Báez strikes out 60% of the time against it across 10 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 60% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.