EDGEAI

MLBhitter vs arsenal

+9 pts

Cam Smith is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 34% of the time against the kind of pitches Ian Seymour throws, compared with 25% against everyone else — 9 points worse. The reason is the changeup: Ian Seymour throws it 29% of the time, and Cam Smith strikes out 46% of the time against it across 46 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

Published Saturday, September 12, 2026

Cam Smith is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 34% of the time against the kind of pitches Ian Seymour throws, compared with 25% against everyone else — 9 points worse. The reason is the changeup: Ian Seymour throws it 29% of the time, and Cam Smith strikes out 46% of the time against it across 46 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR

Cam Smith Over 0.5 strikeouts

THE NUMBERS

player id
701358
player name
Cam Smith
team
Houston Astros
matchup
Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays
pitcher name
Ian Seymour
direction
vulnerable
headline
+9 pts
weighted krate
0.339
own baseline
0.254
k delta
0.085
weighted avg
0.19
mix covered
0.924
detail
Cam Smith is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 34% of the time against the kind of pitches Ian Seymour throws, compared with 25% against everyone else — 9 points worse. The reason is the changeup: Ian Seymour throws it 29% of the time, and Cam Smith strikes out 46% of the time against it across 46 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.