EDGEAI
MLBhitter vs arsenal
+10 pts
STRIKES OUT MORE
Published Tuesday, September 15, 2026
Carson Benge is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 32% of the time against the kind of pitches Shane Baz throws, compared with 22% against everyone else — 10 points worse. The reason is the knuckle curve: Shane Baz throws it 33% of the time, and Carson Benge strikes out 55% of the time against it across 11 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.
THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR
Carson Benge Over 0.5 strikeouts
THE NUMBERS
player id
701807
player name
Carson Benge
team
New York Mets
matchup
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets
pitcher name
Shane Baz
direction
vulnerable
headline
+10 pts
weighted krate
0.321
own baseline
0.219
k delta
0.102
weighted avg
0.23
mix covered
0.82
detail
Carson Benge is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 32% of the time against the kind of pitches Shane Baz throws, compared with 22% against everyone else — 10 points worse. The reason is the knuckle curve: Shane Baz throws it 33% of the time, and Carson Benge strikes out 55% of the time against it across 11 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.
This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.