EDGEAI

MLBhitter vs arsenal

+6 pts

Drew Cavanaugh is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 31% of the time against the kind of pitches Lake Bachar throws, compared with 25% against everyone else — 6 points worse. The reason is the curveball: Lake Bachar throws it 18% of the time, and Drew Cavanaugh strikes out 38% of the time against it across 8 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 71% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

Published Thursday, September 3, 2026

Drew Cavanaugh is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 31% of the time against the kind of pitches Lake Bachar throws, compared with 25% against everyone else — 6 points worse. The reason is the curveball: Lake Bachar throws it 18% of the time, and Drew Cavanaugh strikes out 38% of the time against it across 8 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 71% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR

Drew Cavanaugh Over 0.5 strikeouts

THE NUMBERS

player id
701852
player name
Drew Cavanaugh
team
San Francisco Giants
matchup
San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates
pitcher name
Lake Bachar
direction
vulnerable
headline
+6 pts
weighted krate
0.314
own baseline
0.254
k delta
0.06
weighted avg
0.232
mix covered
0.707
detail
Drew Cavanaugh is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 31% of the time against the kind of pitches Lake Bachar throws, compared with 25% against everyone else — 6 points worse. The reason is the curveball: Lake Bachar throws it 18% of the time, and Drew Cavanaugh strikes out 38% of the time against it across 8 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 71% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.