EDGEAI
MLBhitter vs arsenal
+6 pts
STRIKES OUT MORE
Published Thursday, October 15, 2026
Chandler Simpson is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 14% of the time against the kind of pitches Gavin Williams throws, compared with 8% against everyone else — 6 points worse. The reason is the sweeper: Gavin Williams throws it 29% of the time, and Chandler Simpson strikes out 22% of the time against it across 32 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.
THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR
Chandler Simpson Over 0.5 strikeouts
THE NUMBERS
player id
802415
player name
Chandler Simpson
team
Tampa Bay Rays
matchup
Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians
pitcher name
Gavin Williams
direction
vulnerable
headline
+6 pts
weighted krate
0.143
own baseline
0.079
k delta
0.064
weighted avg
0.288
mix covered
0.941
detail
Chandler Simpson is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 14% of the time against the kind of pitches Gavin Williams throws, compared with 8% against everyone else — 6 points worse. The reason is the sweeper: Gavin Williams throws it 29% of the time, and Chandler Simpson strikes out 22% of the time against it across 32 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it.
This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.