EDGEAI

MLBhitter vs arsenal

+13 pts

Rafael Flores Jr. is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 44% of the time against the kind of pitches Matthew Liberatore throws, compared with 31% against everyone else — 13 points worse. The reason is the slider: Matthew Liberatore throws it 25% of the time, and Rafael Flores Jr. strikes out 50% of the time against it across 14 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 70% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

Published Sunday, August 30, 2026

Rafael Flores Jr. is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 44% of the time against the kind of pitches Matthew Liberatore throws, compared with 31% against everyone else — 13 points worse. The reason is the slider: Matthew Liberatore throws it 25% of the time, and Rafael Flores Jr. strikes out 50% of the time against it across 14 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 70% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR

Rafael Flores Jr. Over 0.5 strikeouts

THE NUMBERS

player id
804668
player name
Rafael Flores Jr.
team
Pittsburgh Pirates
matchup
Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals
pitcher name
Matthew Liberatore
direction
vulnerable
headline
+13 pts
weighted krate
0.436
own baseline
0.309
k delta
0.127
weighted avg
0.178
mix covered
0.698
detail
Rafael Flores Jr. is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 44% of the time against the kind of pitches Matthew Liberatore throws, compared with 31% against everyone else — 13 points worse. The reason is the slider: Matthew Liberatore throws it 25% of the time, and Rafael Flores Jr. strikes out 50% of the time against it across 14 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 70% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.