EDGEAI

MLBhitter vs arsenal

+10 pts

STRIKES OUT MORE

Published Tuesday, September 29, 2026

Lucas Spence is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 48% of the time against the kind of pitches Hagen Smith throws, compared with 38% against everyone else — 10 points worse. The reason is the four-seam fb: Hagen Smith throws it 48% of the time, and Lucas Spence strikes out 55% of the time against it across 11 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 79% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR

Lucas Spence Over 0.5 strikeouts

THE NUMBERS

player id
828599
player name
Lucas Spence
team
Houston Astros
matchup
Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros
pitcher name
Hagen Smith
direction
vulnerable
headline
+10 pts
weighted krate
0.48
own baseline
0.378
k delta
0.102
weighted avg
0.1
mix covered
0.787
detail
Lucas Spence is a worse strikeout risk than usual tonight, and his season strikeout rate does not show it. He strikes out 48% of the time against the kind of pitches Hagen Smith throws, compared with 38% against everyone else — 10 points worse. The reason is the four-seam fb: Hagen Smith throws it 48% of the time, and Lucas Spence strikes out 55% of the time against it across 11 plate appearances. A season strikeout rate averages every kind of pitcher he has faced, so a matchup like this disappears into it. Based on 79% of what this pitcher throws — he has not faced the rest often enough to measure.

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.