Pablo Durán

Celta Vigo @ Elche

Published Sunday, October 11, 2026

2 goals in his last 4 matches — 0.5 a game. The median for tonight's candidates is 0 a match. 0.21 expected goals a match, so the scoring is running ahead of the chances he is getting. Tonight's median is 0.07. 1 shots on target a match, against a median of 0.225 for tonight's candidates.

THE NUMBERS

photo player id

320517

odds source

market

bookmaker

William Hill

estimated odds

+322

market implied prob

0.3076923076923077

edge

-0.071

base rate

0.262

adjusted rate

0.271

player id

pl_01398293

player name

Pablo Durán

position

team

Celta Vigo

match

Celta Vigo @ Elche

goals in window

matches played

goals per match

0.5

expected goals per match

0.21

shots on target per match

non penalty expected goals per match

0.22

penalty expected goals per match

estimated score probability

0.237

odds

+225

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.