EDGEAI
SOCCERgoal scorer watch
Ademola Lookman
Osasuna @ Atletico Madrid
Published Wednesday, September 16, 2026
1 goal in his last 5 matches — 0.2 a game. The median for tonight's candidates is 0 a match. 0.05 expected goals a match, so the scoring is running ahead of the chances he is getting. Tonight's median is 0.06. 0.2 shots on target a match — thin volume for a goal-scorer price, against a median of 0.2 for tonight's candidates.
THE NUMBERS
photo player id
18767
odds source
market
bookmaker
William Hill
estimated odds
+462
market implied prob
0.42016806722689076
edge
-0.242
base rate
0.159
adjusted rate
0.196
player id
pl_13016698
player name
Ademola Lookman
position
F
team
Atletico Madrid
match
Osasuna @ Atletico Madrid
goals in window
1
matches played
5
goals per match
0.2
expected goals per match
0.05
shots on target per match
0.2
non penalty expected goals per match
0.05
penalty expected goals per match
0
estimated score probability
0.178
odds
+138
This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.