EDGEAI
SOCCERgoal scorer watch
Alex Baena
Osasuna @ Atletico Madrid
Published Wednesday, September 16, 2026
2 goals in his last 5 matches — 0.4 a game. The median for tonight's candidates is 0 a match. 0.11 expected goals a match, so the scoring is running ahead of the chances he is getting. Tonight's median is 0.06. 0.6 shots on target a match, against a median of 0.2 for tonight's candidates.
THE NUMBERS
photo player id
182219
odds source
market
bookmaker
1xBet
estimated odds
+294
market implied prob
0.3125
edge
-0.058
base rate
0.238
adjusted rate
0.293
player id
pl_29808527
player name
Alex Baena
position
F
team
Atletico Madrid
match
Osasuna @ Atletico Madrid
goals in window
2
matches played
5
goals per match
0.4
expected goals per match
0.11
shots on target per match
0.6
non penalty expected goals per match
0.12
penalty expected goals per match
0
estimated score probability
0.254
odds
+220
This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.