Mariano Díaz

Valencia @ Alaves

Published Tuesday, September 15, 2026

3 goals in his last 5 matches — 0.6 a game. The median for tonight's candidates is 0 a match. 0.25 expected goals a match, so the scoring is running ahead of the chances he is getting. Tonight's median is 0.07. 1.6 shots on target a match — the volume is there, against a median of 0.25 for tonight's candidates.

THE NUMBERS

photo player id

760

odds source

market

bookmaker

Betfair

estimated odds

+179

market implied prob

0.2857142857142857

edge

0.072

base rate

0.329

adjusted rate

0.443

player id

pl_5859697

player name

Mariano Díaz

position

team

Alaves

match

Valencia @ Alaves

goals in window

matches played

goals per match

0.6

expected goals per match

0.25

shots on target per match

1.6

non penalty expected goals per match

0.27

penalty expected goals per match

estimated score probability

0.358

odds

+250

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.