EDGEAI
SOCCERgoal scorer watch
Diego Moreira
AC Milan @ Sassuolo
Published Sunday, October 11, 2026
3 goals in his last 4 matches — 0.75 a game. The median for tonight's candidates is 0 a match. 0.2 expected goals a match, so the scoring is running ahead of the chances he is getting. Tonight's median is 0.07. 0.75 shots on target a match, against a median of 0.225 for tonight's candidates.
THE NUMBERS
photo player id
335056
odds source
market
bookmaker
Betfair
estimated odds
+341
market implied prob
0.22727272727272727
edge
0
base rate
0.253
adjusted rate
0.257
player id
pl_58716949
player name
Diego Moreira
position
F
team
AC Milan
match
AC Milan @ Sassuolo
goals in window
3
matches played
4
goals per match
0.75
expected goals per match
0.2
shots on target per match
0.75
non penalty expected goals per match
0.21
penalty expected goals per match
0.005
estimated score probability
0.227
odds
+340
This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.