Santiago Mouriño

Villarreal @ Malaga

Published Thursday, September 17, 2026

1 goal in his last 4 matches — 0.25 a game. The median for tonight's candidates is 0 a match. 0.03 expected goals a match, so the scoring is running ahead of the chances he is getting. Tonight's median is 0.07500000000000001. 0.25 shots on target a match — thin volume for a goal-scorer price, against a median of 0.25 for tonight's candidates.

THE NUMBERS

photo player id

311773

odds source

market

bookmaker

Betfair

estimated odds

+1024

market implied prob

0.07692307692307693

edge

0.012

base rate

0.089

adjusted rate

0.093

player id

pl_62505082

player name

Santiago Mouriño

position

team

Villarreal

match

Villarreal @ Malaga

goals in window

matches played

goals per match

0.25

expected goals per match

0.03

shots on target per match

0.25

non penalty expected goals per match

0.03

penalty expected goals per match

0.003

estimated score probability

0.089

odds

+1200

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.