Federico Valverde

Real Madrid @ Elche

Published Tuesday, September 15, 2026

1 goal in his last 5 matches — 0.2 a game. The median for tonight's candidates is 0 a match. 0.09 expected goals a match, so the scoring is running ahead of the chances he is getting. Tonight's median is 0.07. 0.4 shots on target a match, against a median of 0.25 for tonight's candidates.

THE NUMBERS

photo player id

756

odds source

market

bookmaker

Betfair

estimated odds

+809

market implied prob

0.20833333333333334

edge

-0.098

base rate

0.101

adjusted rate

0.116

player id

pl_84027234

player name

Federico Valverde

position

team

Real Madrid

match

Real Madrid @ Elche

goals in window

matches played

goals per match

0.2

expected goals per match

0.09

shots on target per match

0.4

non penalty expected goals per match

0.1

penalty expected goals per match

0.006

estimated score probability

0.11

odds

+380

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.