EDGEAI
SOCCERgoal scorer watch
Danny Welbeck
Bournemouth @ Chelsea
Published Saturday, October 10, 2026
2 goals in his last 4 matches — 0.5 a game. The median for tonight's candidates is 0 a match. 0.5 shots on target a match, against a median of 0.2 for tonight's candidates. Chelsea are scoring at 1.64 times the league baseline — a side creating more chances than average for him to finish.
THE NUMBERS
photo player id
1469
odds source
market
bookmaker
William Hill
estimated odds
+210
market implied prob
0.4166666666666667
edge
-0.094
base rate
0.308
adjusted rate
0.39
player id
pl_926119
player name
Danny Welbeck
position
F
team
Chelsea
match
Bournemouth @ Chelsea
goals in window
2
matches played
4
goals per match
0.5
expected goals per match
0
shots on target per match
0.5
non penalty expected goals per match
0.09
penalty expected goals per match
0
estimated score probability
0.323
odds
+140
This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.