Marco Grüll

Werder Bremen @ Borussia Dortmund

Published Friday, October 9, 2026

2 goals in his last 5 matches — 0.4 a game. The median for tonight's candidates is 0 a match. 0.1 expected goals a match, so the scoring is running ahead of the chances he is getting. Tonight's median is 0.06. 0.6 shots on target a match, against a median of 0.25 for tonight's candidates.

THE NUMBERS

photo player id

7073

odds source

market

bookmaker

Betfair

estimated odds

+700

market implied prob

0.1724137931034483

edge

-0.047

base rate

0.159

adjusted rate

0.133

player id

pl_96137372

player name

Marco Grüll

position

team

Werder Bremen

match

Werder Bremen @ Borussia Dortmund

goals in window

matches played

goals per match

0.4

expected goals per match

0.1

shots on target per match

0.6

non penalty expected goals per match

0.11

penalty expected goals per match

0.002

estimated score probability

0.125

odds

+480

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.