EDGEAI
SOCCERgoal scorer watch
Keito Nakamura
Lyon @ Lens
Published Friday, October 9, 2026
1 goal in his last 3 matches — 0.33 a game. The median for tonight's candidates is 0 a match. 0.02 expected goals a match, so the scoring is running ahead of the chances he is getting. Tonight's median is 0.06. 0.67 shots on target a match, against a median of 0.25 for tonight's candidates.
THE NUMBERS
photo player id
33321
odds source
market
bookmaker
Betfair
estimated odds
+429
market implied prob
0.23255813953488372
edge
-0.044
base rate
0.207
adjusted rate
0.209
player id
pl_96479964
player name
Keito Nakamura
position
F
team
Lyon
match
Lyon @ Lens
goals in window
1
matches played
3
goals per match
0.33
expected goals per match
0.02
shots on target per match
0.67
non penalty expected goals per match
0.02
penalty expected goals per match
0
estimated score probability
0.189
odds
+330
This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.