EDGEAI

TENNISmatch edge margin mismatch

+2.5 / -1.8

James Duckworth is averaging +2.5 games a match over his last 10, against -1.8 for Matteo Arnaldi over 10. That is score differential, not win-loss — two players can both be winning while one is winning comfortably and the other is scraping through. James Duckworth is ranked #79 against #34, so the form and the rankings disagree. Matteo Arnaldi is losing more games than he wins on aggregate despite his record, which usually means close sets and thin cushions.

Published Monday, August 31, 2026

James Duckworth is averaging +2.5 games a match over his last 10, against -1.8 for Matteo Arnaldi over 10. That is score differential, not win-loss — two players can both be winning while one is winning comfortably and the other is scraping through. James Duckworth is ranked #79 against #34, so the form and the rankings disagree. Matteo Arnaldi is losing more games than he wins on aggregate despite his record, which usually means close sets and thin cushions.

THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR

James Duckworth ML
+146 at the time this was published

THE NUMBERS

angle
margin_mismatch
match
James Duckworth vs Matteo Arnaldi
league
ATP
surface
Hard
player name
James Duckworth
opponent name
Matteo Arnaldi
direction
favors
headline
+2.5 / -1.8
detail
James Duckworth is averaging +2.5 games a match over his last 10, against -1.8 for Matteo Arnaldi over 10. That is score differential, not win-loss — two players can both be winning while one is winning comfortably and the other is scraping through. James Duckworth is ranked #79 against #34, so the form and the rankings disagree. Matteo Arnaldi is losing more games than he wins on aggregate despite his record, which usually means close sets and thin cushions.
player value
2.5
opponent value
-1.8
sample size
10
player rank
79
opponent rank
34

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.