EDGEAI

TENNISmatch edge margin mismatch

+5.6 / -2.4

Toby Samuel is averaging +5.6 games a match over his last 10, against -2.4 for Tomas Machac over 10. That is score differential, not win-loss — two players can both be winning while one is winning comfortably and the other is scraping through. Toby Samuel is ranked #110 against #58, so the form and the rankings disagree. Tomas Machac is losing more games than he wins on aggregate despite his record, which usually means close sets and thin cushions.

Published Sunday, August 30, 2026

Toby Samuel is averaging +5.6 games a match over his last 10, against -2.4 for Tomas Machac over 10. That is score differential, not win-loss — two players can both be winning while one is winning comfortably and the other is scraping through. Toby Samuel is ranked #110 against #58, so the form and the rankings disagree. Tomas Machac is losing more games than he wins on aggregate despite his record, which usually means close sets and thin cushions.

THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR

Toby Samuel ML
-135 at the time this was published

THE NUMBERS

angle
margin_mismatch
match
Tomas Machac vs Toby Samuel
league
ATP
surface
Hard
player name
Toby Samuel
opponent name
Tomas Machac
direction
favors
headline
+5.6 / -2.4
detail
Toby Samuel is averaging +5.6 games a match over his last 10, against -2.4 for Tomas Machac over 10. That is score differential, not win-loss — two players can both be winning while one is winning comfortably and the other is scraping through. Toby Samuel is ranked #110 against #58, so the form and the rankings disagree. Tomas Machac is losing more games than he wins on aggregate despite his record, which usually means close sets and thin cushions.
player value
5.6
opponent value
-2.4
sample size
10
player rank
110
opponent rank
58

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.