EDGEAI

TENNISmatch edge surface mismatch

63% vs 25%

Hugo Gaston wins 63% of his hard court matches across 8, against 25% across 4 for Daniil Medvedev. Hugo Gaston is the LOWER-ranked player here at #88 against #8 — the surface record and the rankings point opposite ways, which is exactly what a rankings-driven price misses. A combined win rate blends every surface together and shows none of it.

Published Sunday, August 30, 2026

Hugo Gaston wins 63% of his hard court matches across 8, against 25% across 4 for Daniil Medvedev. Hugo Gaston is the LOWER-ranked player here at #88 against #8 — the surface record and the rankings point opposite ways, which is exactly what a rankings-driven price misses. A combined win rate blends every surface together and shows none of it.

THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR

Hugo Gaston ML
+613 at the time this was published

THE NUMBERS

angle
surface_mismatch
match
Hugo Gaston vs Daniil Medvedev
league
ATP
surface
Hard
player name
Hugo Gaston
opponent name
Daniil Medvedev
direction
favors
headline
63% vs 25%
detail
Hugo Gaston wins 63% of his hard court matches across 8, against 25% across 4 for Daniil Medvedev. Hugo Gaston is the LOWER-ranked player here at #88 against #8 — the surface record and the rankings point opposite ways, which is exactly what a rankings-driven price misses. A combined win rate blends every surface together and shows none of it.
player value
0.63
opponent value
0.25
sample size
4
player rank
88
opponent rank
8

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.