EDGEAI

TENNISmatch edge surface mismatch

60% vs 25%

James Duckworth wins 60% of his hard court matches across 10, against 25% across 4 for Matteo Arnaldi. James Duckworth is the LOWER-ranked player here at #79 against #34 — the surface record and the rankings point opposite ways, which is exactly what a rankings-driven price misses. A combined win rate blends every surface together and shows none of it.

Published Monday, August 31, 2026

James Duckworth wins 60% of his hard court matches across 10, against 25% across 4 for Matteo Arnaldi. James Duckworth is the LOWER-ranked player here at #79 against #34 — the surface record and the rankings point opposite ways, which is exactly what a rankings-driven price misses. A combined win rate blends every surface together and shows none of it.

THE BET THIS ARGUED FOR

James Duckworth ML
+146 at the time this was published

THE NUMBERS

angle
surface_mismatch
match
James Duckworth vs Matteo Arnaldi
league
ATP
surface
Hard
player name
James Duckworth
opponent name
Matteo Arnaldi
direction
favors
headline
60% vs 25%
detail
James Duckworth wins 60% of his hard court matches across 10, against 25% across 4 for Matteo Arnaldi. James Duckworth is the LOWER-ranked player here at #79 against #34 — the surface record and the rankings point opposite ways, which is exactly what a rankings-driven price misses. A combined win rate blends every surface together and shows none of it.
player value
0.6
opponent value
0.25
sample size
4
player rank
79
opponent rank
34

This record was written when the finding was first published and has not been edited since. The numbers and the wording are what our engines produced on the day.